Is AI creating jobs while destroying pathways?

Beginning in 2028, AI is expected to generate more jobs than it removes, meaning that strong internal talent pipelines will be essential for meeting future workforce demand, new research from Gartner has suggested.

Gartner HR director analyst Kaelyn Lowmaster noted that “AI is ultimately going to result in more job gains than losses, but in the process, it’s going to break down millions of careers.”

She said: “As AI changes how work gets done, organisations must rethink how employees gain expertise and experience, or they will find themselves without ready talent for the jobs AI helps create.”

A December 2025 survey by Gartner of 110 HR leaders found that as organisations rapidly adopt AI and redesign work around emerging technologies, 40 per cent have eliminated outdated roles to better align with evolving business needs, while nearly half have restructured teams to operate in more cross-functional and agile ways.

As traditional career paths narrow or disappear, many employees are finding fewer clear opportunities for advancement. AI is accelerating this shift by automating many entry-level roles and reducing on-the-job development opportunities, leaving junior talent with limited chances to build foundational skills, experience, and professional judgement.

To fully leverage AI, Gartner highlights the necessity for organisations to move away from experience-based career progression and, rather, towards skills-based advancement systems, with a more prominent focus on quickly building capability and reimaging how talent progresses.

In order to keep a resilient internal talent pipeline, Gartner has identified two key priorities for chief human resources officers (CHROs): accelerating the development of new critical capabilities and creating advancement pathways based on skills rather than job roles.

As AI increasingly automates or augments core tasks, CHROs need to take a more intentional approach to developing critical workforce skills.

Organisations must then build the infrastructure to support accelerated capability development, including incentives that reward skill-building and scalable learning methods such as simulations and guided practice environments.

CHROs must first identify the skills most critical to future success and deprioritise those that are becoming obsolete.

“Performance at one level is no longer a proxy for readiness for more senior roles,” Lowmaster said.

“With AI support, employees can meet or exceed their current goals without developing the depth of expertise required for more complex roles.”

Gartner suggests that CHROs can prioritise “skills promise” by identifying employees with the foundational capabilities, learning agility, and adaptability needed to succeed in higher-level roles – even if they do not perfectly match historical role criteria.

As AI continues to reshape roles and ways of working, Gartner notes that senior employees must be able to navigate ambiguity, guide teams through continuous transformation, and succeed without relying solely on past experience.

The most effective change leaders take deliberate action to make change routine, empowering employees to pursue their own learning opportunities as AI reshapes work.

“Organisations that invest now in rebuilding career advancement pathways based on skills and adaptability will be best positioned to meet future talent demand, whereas those that don’t risk creating deep capability gaps just as AI-driven growth accelerates,” Lowmaster said.

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