The truth about return-to-office headlines: Data tells a different story

It is becoming increasingly clear that employers who cling to the idea of a full-scale return to the office may be fighting a losing battle, writes Dr Gleb Tsipursky.

In recent months, headlines have frequently proclaimed that companies like Amazon demand employees return to the office in droves, signalling the end of the flexible work era. However, contrary to these attention-grabbing headlines, reliable and objective data from sources like the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows a steady increase in workplace flexibility, with more employees enjoying hybrid and remote work arrangements in 2024 than in the previous year.

Cherry-picked stories v objective data

The sensationalism around a supposedly ever-growing return to the office is largely driven by cherry-picked stories. Headlines often focus on the loud proclamations of a few high-profile CEOs or companies cracking down on flexible work. These narratives grab attention but are not necessarily representative of broader trends. In reality, many organisations are quietly adapting to employee preferences for flexibility, finding that the rigid mandates announced in the early post-pandemic phase are difficult to enforce and often counterproductive.

A clear example of this disconnect is found in the August 2024 jobs report from the BLS. Contrary to the narrative of a massive return to office, the data reveals a year-over-year increase in the number of employees who work from home, either some of the time or all the time. Specifically, 22.8 per cent of workers reported teleworking for some or all of their jobs in August 2024, up from 19.5 per cent in the same month the previous year. Among hybrid workers – those who work remotely only some of the time – the share climbed from 9.2 per cent to 11.7 per cent over the same period; those who worked remotely all the time increased to 11.1 per cent, up from 10.3 per cent.

This government data is backed up by similar findings from highly credible private sources. For example, the eighth annual Owl Labs state of work report finds that the number of fully in-office workers fell from 66 per cent in 2023 to 62 per cent in 2024, while the number of hybrid workers rose from 26 to 27 per cent and fully remote from 7 to 11 per cent. Overall, the BLS data is more trustworthy on actual proportions of each, since they have a broader and deeper data set, but the similarity in trends is telling.

The uptick in remote and hybrid work is a strong indicator that many employers are becoming more accommodating, even as some continue to trumpet a return-to-office rhetoric. This shift is driven by practical considerations. For example, several CEOs at companies I work with on helping determine their flexible work arrangements have increasingly chosen to – quietly – cease enforcing in-office attendance rules when they realised that the effort to monitor and manage these requirements was becoming more trouble than it was worth. The initial worker backlash to strict return-to-office policies did not subside as expected, but rather continued to escalate, diverting managerial attention away from more strategic concerns.

A variant of this pattern is the “hushed hybrid” trend, where workers collaborate secretly with their managers to come to the office less frequently than the C-suite wants. Essentially, the managers undermine company policies because they recognise it would be a lot of hassle to enforce them, and not worth the resentment this enforcement would cause. Thus, many workers come in once or twice a week, even if the requirements might be three days a week.

On a related note, witness the rise of “coffee badging”, where employees might follow the letter of the law but undermine its spirit. Namely, they come into the office the required three – or even four or five – days a week, long enough to grab a coffee and meet with a colleague, and then go home.

No wonder the 2023 Global Traffic Scorecard by traffic analysis firm INRIX observed significant changes in commuting patterns, with a decrease in peak morning and evening traffic congestion and an increase around midday. This shift suggests that many employees are taking advantage of more flexible work hours, leading to a new kind of workday that departs from the traditional nine-to-five model. Moreover, the global nature of this survey shows the trend of flexibility is not limited to American companies.

The myth of the ‘great return’ to the office

The persistent narrative of a “great return” to the office is not only misleading but also fails to account for the growing body of evidence that suggests a preference for flexibility is reshaping the modern workplace. For instance, a June 2024 survey from the Conference Board found that nearly half (45 per cent) of HR professionals in companies with strict in-office mandates reported difficulties retaining employees. In contrast, only 15 per cent of HR professionals in companies offering flexibility faced similar retention challenges. This stark contrast highlights how rigid office attendance policies can be detrimental to talent retention.

Similarly, a recent report from the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, in partnership with Great Place to Work, identified strong positive links between flexible work models and employee wellbeing. The study analysed the percentage of a company’s workforce permitted to work remotely for part of the week. Companies where at least 75 per cent of employees had the option to work remotely part-time reported the highest levels of wellbeing. In contrast, firms where fewer than 25 per cent of employees had this flexibility scored the lowest. A similar trend was observed with flexible work schedules. Organisations that allowed a larger share of their workforce to choose their in-office hours experienced a more positive and healthy work environment.

It’s clear that for many professionals, the option to work remotely or in a hybrid model is non-negotiable. Recent findings from an Owl Labs survey support this view, revealing that 66 per cent of employees would consider looking for a new job if the ability to work from home were removed, and 39 per cent would quit immediately. This data underscores a significant shift in worker priorities, where flexibility, work/life balance, and mental health support are becoming more valued than traditional benefits or even salary increases.

Data from Robert Half, a staffing firm, provides further evidence that the job market is tilting decisively towards flexible work arrangements. According to their reports, the number of fully onsite roles has steadily decreased over the past year. In Q1 2023, eighty-three per cent of job postings were for fully onsite roles. By Q2 2024, that figure had dropped to 67 per cent, down from 69 per cent in Q1 2024. Meanwhile, job postings for hybrid and remote roles have been steadily increasing. For example, hybrid job postings have risen from 9 per cent in Q1 2023 to 22 per cent in Q2 2024, while remote job postings have grown from 7 per cent to 11 per cent over the same period.

The way forward: Embracing a hybrid future

In the face of these trends, it is becoming increasingly clear that employers who cling to the idea of a full-scale return to the office may be fighting a losing battle. Workers have demonstrated that they are willing to push back against rigid attendance rules, and the data shows that they are succeeding in securing more flexibility. The year-over-year increase in remote and hybrid work signals that flexible work is here to stay. Companies that recognise this reality and adapt their policies accordingly will likely find themselves in a stronger position to attract and retain top talent.

Gleb Tsipursky, PhD, is the chief executive of hybrid work consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts.