Unemployment stayed steady at 4.3% in March

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 per cent in March 2026, the ABS data has shown.

In March 2026, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed at 4.3 per cent, after a slight up-tick in February. The participation rate also stayed steady at 66.8 per cent, and the number of employed people increased by 30,800.

Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said: "The number of employed people rose by 18,000 and the number of unemployed people fell by 4,000 in March.

"Growth in employment was driven by full-time workers, which rose by 53,000 people in March. This was partly offset by a fall in part-time employment of 35,000 people."

Prior to the release, Commonwealth Bank predicted that the unemployment rate would lift slightly to 4.4 per cent, the participation rate would remain steady at 66.9 per cent and employment would boost by 20,000.

Westpac had anticipated a dip in the participation rate, to 66.8 per cent, and a slight fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2 per cent.

In an April 10 preview of the ABS data, Westpac economist Ryan Wells said the March unemployment data would be significant as it was the first piece of official ‘hard’ economic data released since the Middle East conflict began on 28 February.

That being said, Wells anticipated that the labour force data would only capture the first two weeks of the conflict, meaning its impacts were unlikely to be reflected in the numbers yet.

“This is far too early to detect any meaningful shift in broad labour market conditions in Australia that could be tied to the Middle East conflict,” he said.

“This is because the labour market sits further downstream from price shocks, which take time to work through household spending to margins and decisions around investment and staffing.”

Wells added that economists’ expectations surrounding the Middle East conflict had shifted, with analysts anticipating that the conflict would be larger and more persistent than first assumed. Westpac now anticipated three more 25 basis point rate hikes from the RBA this year, in May, June and August.

This would drive a larger weakening in the labour market over the second half of 2026.

“A combination of softer labour demand and slightly higher labour force participation means that more slack will open up in the labour market this year, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.3 per cent currently to a peak of 5 per cent by early-2027,” Wells said.

Emma Partis

Emma Partis is a journalist at HR Leader. Previously, Emma worked as a News Intern with Bloomberg News' economics and government team in Sydney. She studied econometrics and psychology at UNSW.

Want to see more stories from trusted news sources?
Make HR Leader a preferred news source on Google.