‘The boom is over’: Job availability drop highlights a larger issue

Businesses appear to be easing up on hiring as reports show that job postings over the first quarter of 2024 have slumped. Some are pointing to the state of the economy as the key factor influencing these trends.

The first quarter of 2024, as highlighted by The Jobs Report, saw a 4.6 per cent decline in the National Jobs Index. This is the fourth consecutive drop, with the total decline over the past year reaching 22.1 per cent.

According to RCSA, a cocktail of economic trouble has been identified as the reason behind conservative business decisions. Economic volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and high-interest rates have culminated in businesses being frugal with spending and expansion.

“There is little doubt that conditions remain tough. Discretionary spending has dipped as people struggle with the cost of living and the financial pressures associated with the high-interest rates,” said RCSA head of advocacy Brooke Lord.

“I think we can expect the jobs market to remain soft until interest rates begin to fall and business confidence picks up.”

Positions with flexible schedules were hit harder than “perm” jobs. The Perm Jobs Index only dipped 1.4 per cent, while flexible work opportunities fell 14.7 per cent. This is reportedly a sign that business confidence is still high.

Lord continued: “This is unusual in the current climate. We usually see employers favour flexible workers when business confidence is down. The data indicates a degree of optimism from employers who remain confident enough to take on permanent staff, despite the economic challenges.”

“Another possibility for the weakening in demand for flexible workers could be that recent IR reforms have clouded employer confidence in hiring casually. Prior to the changes, employers were prepared to pay more for casual staff for the flexibility, but if that flexibility has eroded, they may decide to put off hiring all together or seek permanent staff to fill gaps.”

The study revealed that public administration and safety (down 10.6 per cent) and health care and social assistance (down 10.4 per cent) were the industries most affected by a decrease in job opportunities.

The Jobs Report noted that these two industries were at the forefront of driving market strength post-pandemic. However, recent times have seen this momentum fade, with healthcare falling 37.7 per cent in the last 12 months.

“These sectors drove a lot of strength in the market post-COVID-19. The dip in demand is not necessarily concerning because it could indicate the market is normalising,” explained Lord.

“Our members are telling us that while things are a little tough, the job market seems to be returning to the way it was before the pandemic. It’s in a ‘re-adjustment’ phase. The COVID-19 boom is over.”

She concluded: “The report is not all doom and gloom. Australia still shows resilience in the face of challenging times. There is optimism that things will continue to improve as the year progresses.”